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内容提要
2026年夏季，西欧遭遇了持续且破纪录的极端高温天气，导致基础设施受损及严重的公共卫生危机。研究人员利用美国国家航天局（NASA）的全球模型和遥感数据，分析了此次热浪的影响及其与人口脆弱性的关联。
原文全文译文
2026年5月，西欧首次出现了不同寻常的夏季迹象，当时一个热穹顶（heat dome）产生了打破多个国家纪录的异常高温。尽管这次早期的热浪十分显著，但它仅仅是后续一系列极端天气的序幕。
Western Europe got its first hint of an unusual summer in May 2026, when a heat dome produced exceptional temperatures that shattered records in several countries. Remarkable as it was, that early heat wave turned out to be only the opening salvo.
到8月中旬，欧洲人正在经历该季节的第五次热浪，最新的猛烈高温使大范围地区的表面温度（surface temperature）远超40摄氏度（104华氏度）。在这些极端天气期间，高温往往持续不断，连续数日甚至数周不退，且夜间温度居高不下。
By mid-August, Europeans were sweating through their fifth heat wave of the season, with the latest onslaught pushing temperatures well above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) across a broad area. During these bouts of extreme weather, high temperatures were often unrelenting, persisting for several days and sometimes weeks on end, and remaining overnight.
对于一个习惯了相对温和夏季的地区来说，这种高温颠覆了日常生活。住院人数和与高温相关的死亡率（death rate）激增。公路和铁轨发生弯曲，迫使道路关闭并导致服务中断。在曾经罕见的大型破坏性野火在多地肆虐。高温还加剧了该地区数月来持续的严重干旱，导致河流水位降至历史最低点，并扰乱了供水、电力供应、交通路线和农业生产。
For a region accustomed to relatively mild summers, the heat upended everyday life. Hospitalizations and heat-related deaths spiked. Highways and train tracks buckled, forcing road closures and service disruptions. Large and destructive wildfires raged in areas where they were once rarely seen. The heat also worsened the severe drought that has gripped the region for months, contributing to record-low river water levels and disrupting water and power supplies, transportation routes, and agriculture.
图注：上方的动画展示了2026年5月1日至8月19日西欧地区的每日最高表面温度。它是通过将卫星（satellite）观测数据与美国国家航天局（NASA）的GEOS（戈达德地球观测系统，Goddard Earth Observing System）全球模型预测的温度相结合而生成的，该模型利用数学方程来表征大气中的物理过程。深红色区域表示温度达到或超过40°C的地区。
The animation above shows the daily maximum surface air temperature across Western Europe from May 1 to August 19, 2026. It was produced by combining satellite observations with temperatures predicted by a version of NASA’s GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) global model, which uses mathematical equations to represent physical processes in the atmosphere. The darkest red areas indicate where temperatures met or exceeded 40°C.
高温以惊人的速度打破纪录，且往往超出幅度很大。据英国气象局（UK Met Office）称，5月26日伦敦气温飙升至35.1°C（95.2°F），比之前的5月纪录高出2.3°C（4.1°F）。据法国气象局（Météo-France）报告，6月，法国波尔多连续三天打破最高气温纪录，并在6月24日达到42.5°C。与此同时，斯洛伐克在8月创下了日间和夜间高温的全国新纪录。据欧洲哥白尼（Copernicus）气候监测服务机构称，西欧6月和7月的综合气温为有记录以来的最高值。
The heat broke records at a furious pace, often by wide margins. According to the UK Met Office, temperatures soared as high as 35.1°C (95.2°F) in London on May 26, smashing the previous May record by 2.3°C (4.1°F). In June, Bordeaux, France, broke its maximum-temperature record on three consecutive days, hitting 42.5°C on June 24, Météo-France reported. Slovakia, meanwhile, set new national records for both daytime and nighttime highs in August. Combined June and July temperatures in Western Europe were the highest on record, according to Europe's Copernicus climate monitoring service.
在欧洲，极端气温与多种脆弱性因素相互碰撞，包括空调（air conditioning）普及率有限、夜间高温以及部分城市缺乏绿地。这些情况不仅引起了不适，在某些情况下还引发了热衰竭和中暑。初步报告显示，高温可能与10,000例超额死亡有关，其中包括英国、法国、德国和比利时的数千人。
In Europe, extreme temperatures collided with several vulnerabilities, including limited access to air conditioning, high nighttime temperatures, and a lack of green space in some cities. The circumstances triggered not just discomfort but heat exhaustion and heatstroke in some cases. Preliminary reports suggest that heat may have been associated with 10,000 excess deaths, including thousands of people in the UK, France, Germany, and Belgium.
“从短期来看，空调是欧洲一个特别关键的问题，”纽约大学研究员Anamika Shreevastava说，她曾在NASA喷气推进实验室（Jet Propulsion Laboratory）担任博士后，研究城市热岛效应。她的目标之一是利用来自ECOSTRESS等任务的NASA数据制作热图，供城市规划者使用，以提高城市应对热浪的韧性。
"Air conditioning is an especially critical issue in Europe in the short term," said Anamika Shreevastava, a researcher at New York University who studied urban heat islands as a postdoc at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. One of her goals was to produce thermal maps based on NASA data from missions like ECOSTRESS that city planners could use to make cities more resilient to heat waves.
国际能源署（International Energy Agency）的数据显示，欧洲23%的家庭拥有空调，而美国这一比例为90%。这种差异导致研究人员记录的欧洲城市在热浪期间的死亡率远高于美国同类城市。“从长远来看，城市还可以种植树木、扩建公园、使用反射性屋顶涂料，并转向使用不易蓄热的建筑材料，”Shreevastava说。
International Energy Agency data show that 23 percent of homes in Europe have air conditioning, compared to 90 percent of homes in the United States. That difference contributes to the much higher death rates that researchers have documented in European cities during heat waves than in comparable American cities. "Longer term, cities can also plant trees, expand parks, use reflective roof paint, and transition to building materials less likely to retain heat,” Shreevastava said.
世界卫生组织（World Health Organization）的一项分析表明，热应激是全球与天气相关死亡的主要原因，并指出它会加剧潜在疾病，包括心血管疾病、糖尿病、心理健康状况和哮喘。研究人员计算出，每年约有489,000例与高温相关的死亡，其中45%发生在亚细亚（Asia），36%发生在欧洲。
An analysis from the World Health Organization indicates that heat stress is the world’s leading cause of weather-related deaths, noting it exacerbates underlying illnesses, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental health conditions, and asthma. Researchers have calculated that roughly 489,000 heat-related deaths occur each year, with 45 percent of the deaths in Asia and 36 percent in Europe.
“对于有身体健康问题的老年人来说，低至26.7°C（80°F）的气温就可能构成重大危险，”波士顿大学专门研究老龄化问题的社会学家Deborah Carr说。“夜间高温对家中没有空调的老年人尤其有害。”
"For older adults with physical health problems, temperatures as low as 26.7°C (80°F) can pose significant danger," said Deborah Carr, a Boston University sociologist who specializes in the study of aging. "Nighttime heat is especially harmful for older adults whose homes lack air conditioning."
Carr是一个研究团队的成员，该团队利用人口统计数据以及NASA存档的温度和气候数据，确定了世界上哪些地区面临当前和未来高温暴露的最大风险。研究人员发现，南欧是面临日益严重的高温暴露和人口老龄化问题的地区之一。
Carr is part of a research team that used demographic data, along with temperature and climate data archived by NASA, to identify which parts of the world are at the greatest risk of current and future heat exposure. Southern Europe was among the areas facing growing heat exposure and an aging population, the researchers found.
2026年8月发表在《柳叶刀-星球健康》（Lancet Planetary Health）上的另一项研究强调了人口统计学在评估高温风险方面的重要性。这项由斯坦福大学研究员Qinqin Kong领导的研究，绘制了未来几十年内高温可能导致年轻人、中年人和老年人无法忍受的条件区域，结论是安全阈值将频繁且广泛地被突破，且老年人承受的风险不成比例地更高。
Other research, published in Lancet Planetary Health in August 2026, underscores the importance of demographics in assessing the risks posed by heat. This study, led by Stanford researcher Qinqin Kong, mapped where increasing heat is likely to lead to intolerable conditions in the coming decades for young, middle-aged, and older adults, concluding that safe thresholds will be breached often and widely, with risks falling disproportionately on older people.
“人体只能耐受有限范围的环境热量，”NASA空间科学（space science）与技术奖获得者Kong说。“了解这些极限在何处、何时以及在多大程度上被超过至关重要。”
"The human body can tolerate only a limited range of ambient heat," said Kong, a recipient of a NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology award. “Understanding where, when, and to what extent these limits are exceeded is critical.”
由于预计无法忍受的高温水平将比之前认为的影响更多的人、更大的区域和更长的时间，Kong和她的同事希望他们的发现能为有针对性的高温行动计划、应急准备和卫生系统规划提供参考。
With intolerable levels of heat expected to affect more people across larger regions and for longer periods than previously thought, Kong and his colleagues hope that their findings will inform targeted heat action plans, emergency preparedness, and health system planning.
图注：NASA地球天文台（Observatory）图像由Lauren Dauphin制作，使用了来自NASA戈达德航天中心（GSFC）全球建模与同化办公室的GEOS-FP数据。文章作者：Adam Voiland。
NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin, using GEOS-FP data from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC. Story by Adam Voiland.
参考文献与资源
References & Resources
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其他来源报道（1）
NASA 科学：Europe’s Scorching Summer来源与许可
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